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Nakhli, Seyed Reza, Rafat, Monireh, Bakhshi Dastjerdi, Rasul, Rafei, Meysam. (1398). A DSGE Analysis of the Effects of Economic Sanctions: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iran. , 9(1), 35-70. doi: 10.22099/ijes.2020.36182.1643
Seyed Reza Nakhli; Monireh Rafat; Rasul Bakhshi Dastjerdi; Meysam Rafei. "A DSGE Analysis of the Effects of Economic Sanctions: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iran". , 9, 1, 1398, 35-70. doi: 10.22099/ijes.2020.36182.1643
Nakhli, Seyed Reza, Rafat, Monireh, Bakhshi Dastjerdi, Rasul, Rafei, Meysam. (1398). 'A DSGE Analysis of the Effects of Economic Sanctions: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iran', , 9(1), pp. 35-70. doi: 10.22099/ijes.2020.36182.1643
Nakhli, Seyed Reza, Rafat, Monireh, Bakhshi Dastjerdi, Rasul, Rafei, Meysam. A DSGE Analysis of the Effects of Economic Sanctions: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iran. , 1398; 9(1): 35-70. doi: 10.22099/ijes.2020.36182.1643

A DSGE Analysis of the Effects of Economic Sanctions: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iran

Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
مقاله 3، دوره 9، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 17، خرداد 2020، صفحه 35-70    اصل مقاله (1.08 M)
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2020.36182.1643
نویسندگان
Seyed Reza Nakhli1؛ Monireh Rafat* 1؛ Rasul Bakhshi Dastjerdi1؛ Meysam Rafei2
1Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan.Iran
2Department of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده
Since the nationalization of the oil industry, especially after the 1979 revolution, Iran has always encountered economic sanctions. The oil embargo and international financial sanctions are the most severe sanctions imposed on Iran and have had significant effects on Iran’s macroeconomic variables. The current study aimed to analyze the effects of economic sanctions on Iran’s macroeconomic variables using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on the new Keynesian
approach. The simulation results showed that the intensification of the oil and international financial sanctions would 1) reduce foreign and government investment, technology innovation,
export in the oil sector, and consequently oil production, 2) lead to a higher exchange rate and a decrease in the ratio of the central bank foreign exchange reserves to the monetary base, 3)
reduce the GDP and non-oil exports and increase the inflation, which may cause stagflation, 4) increase household consumption and decrease household investment, 5) increase budget deficit, forcing the government to adopt policies to raise current expenditures and maintain housing and urban development
budget, which, in turn, will lead to a budget deficit and bond sales. The analysis of various optimal monetary policies in the context of economic sanctions and considering the contingent business interruption (CBI) loss function showed that the optimal simple rule, in the form of the producer price index, targeting monetary policy, could reduce the loss function and increase the importance value of output coefficient in themonetary policy.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Economic Sanctions؛ Optimal Simple Rule؛ CPI-PPI Inflation Targeting؛ DSGE Model؛ Calibration؛ Iran
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