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The Transmission of Oil Market Shocks to Iranian Financial Markets: Evidence, Stress Dynamics, and Policy Implications | ||
| Iranian Journal of Economic Studies | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 24 شهریور 1405 | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2026.56586.2135 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Mohammad Hosein Ebadi؛ Saeed Samadi* ؛ Leila Torki؛ Alimorad Sharifi | ||
| Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| This study investigates the transmission mechanisms through which global oil market dynamics propagate systemic financial stress within the Iranian economy. Given Iran’s persistent reliance on oil revenues, analyzing the transmission of external shocks into domestic financial markets is imperative for maintaining macroeconomic stability. We construct a composite Financial Stress Index (FSI) incorporating the stock, money, debt, and foreign exchange markets. Subsequently, we utilize a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework to analyze the dynamic responses of these sectors to four primary oilmarket shocks: real oil prices, global crude production, OECD inventories, and global economic activity. Empirical results reveal that oil market shocks exert significant, heterogeneous, and dynamic effects on the Iranian financial system. The equity market emerges as the primary transmission channel, displaying the highest sensitivity to external shocks over time. Furthermore, we identify temporal asymmetries where initial responses frequently reverse in the medium term, indicating complex adjustment dynamics within the domestic financial network. These findings demonstrate that “one-size-fits-all” stabilization policies are ineffective. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize liquidity-anchoring mechanisms and volatility mitigation strategies in equity markets, while implementing coordinated monetary interventions to contain spillover effects across other financial sectors. By integrating global oil-market proxies into early-warning systems, this research provides a robust framework for proactive risk management in oil-dependent Iran economies. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Keywords: Oil market shock؛ Financial stress index؛ Structural vector autoregression model؛ Macro-prudential Policy | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 104 |
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