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The Asymmetric Impact of Market Risk and Turbulence on Financial Reporting Conservatism: The Moderating Role of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in an Emerging Economy | ||
| Iranian Journal of Economic Studies | ||
| دوره 15، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 29، 2026، صفحه 85-117 اصل مقاله (836.89 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2026.55683.2105 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Mostafa Shamsoddini* 1؛ Narges Salari Kangi2 | ||
| 1Department of Accounting and Economics, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Business Administration, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| This study identifies a theoretical puzzle: while agency theory predicts that all forms of uncertainty increase accounting conservatism as a precautionary buffer, we find that market turbulence reduces it. This paradoxical reversal cannot be explained by standard risk-aversion frameworks. Using a balanced panel of 154 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over 2015-2024 (1,540 firm-year observations), we employ FGLS as our primary estimator, complemented by System GMM to address endogeneity. Our findings reveal a fundamental asymmetry consistent with our proposed Conditional Dominance Framework: market risk has a positive and significant effect on conservatism, supporting the agency-theoretic view of conservatism as a rational response to mitigate agency costs. Conversely, market turbulence exerts a negative and significant impact, consistent with Prospect Theory's prediction that under ambiguity and loss-domain conditions, managers become risk-seeking and abandon prudent reporting. Critically, this behavioral reversal is not constant but is activated and amplified by adverse macroeconomic conditions—inflation and exchange rate depreciation—which act as cognitive regime-switches. Economic growth and higher real interest rates weaken these relationships. The primary contribution is demonstrating that financial reporting conservatism is not merely a strategic response but a fragile defense mechanism that systematically collapses under extreme macro-volatility, challenging the implicit assumption that conservatism always increases with uncertainty. Our findings offer critical insights for managers, investors, and policymakers navigating volatile emerging economies. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Financial Reporting Conservatism؛ Market Risk؛ Market Turbulence؛ Macroeconomic Fluctuations؛ Emerging Markets | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 186 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 208 |
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