| تعداد نشریات | 24 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 917 |
| تعداد مقالات | 8,230 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 16,274,283 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 13,749,851 |
The Impact of Consumption Stability on Income in Urban Households in Iran | ||
| Iranian Journal of Economic Studies | ||
| دوره 14، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 27، 2025، صفحه 243-266 اصل مقاله (516.79 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2025.54586.2071 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Alireza Keikha* 1؛ Alireza Sargazi1؛ Elahe Ahani2 | ||
| 1Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Accounting, Bozorgmehr University of Gaenat, Gaen, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| In Iran, household consumption expenditure is a cornerstone of aggregate demand and a fundamental indicator of economic welfare. This study examines the extent of consumption instability among urban Iranian households and its bidirectional relationship with household income. Using nationally representative microdata from Iran’s 2024 Household Budget Survey and a combination of multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and quantile regression (QR) techniques, the analysis controls for key demographic and socioeconomic variables, including gender, experience, marital status, employment status, education level, and number of dependents. To measure consumption stability, a novel index is constructed based on the relative volatility of each household’s current expenditures, which are categorized into levels ranging from "very low" to "very high." The findings show that, of the 19,898 households in the sample, 19,611 (98%) are classified as "very low" and 286 (2%) as "low"; none are classified as "moderate" or higher. Quantile regression results indicate that the effect of consumption stability on household income is statistically significant and positive across the 0.25, 0.5, and 0.75 income quantiles (p < 0.05, and in some cases, p < 0.01). However, this effect is highly asymmetric; a one-unit increase in the consumption stability index results in income gains that are over 60% larger for high-income households (0.75 quantile) than for low-income households (0.25 quantile). This pattern reveals a self-reinforcing "welfare cycle" among affluent households coexisting with a "consumption instability trap" for low-income groups. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Sustainable Consumption Index؛ Multivariate Regression؛ Quantile Regression؛ Expenditure-Income | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Anderson, E., Kaplan, G., & Violante, G. L. (2021). Consumption Stability and Access to Credit: Evidence from Household Panel Data. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 35(2), 89–112. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.35.2.89 Ateman, A., Blanco, R., & Chen, S. (2020). Income Elasticity and Consumption Patterns: A Quantile Regression Approach. Economic Journal, 130(630), 1875–1902. DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaa032 Atansia, M., & Pistaferri, L. (2016). Consumption and income dynamics. Journal of Economic Literature. Atansio, O., & Pistaferri, L. (2016). Consumption Inequality. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(2), 3–28. Attanasio, O, & Guglielmo W. (2010). Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy.” Journal of Economic Literature 48(3): 693–751. Bakhshi Dastjerdi, R., & Khaki Najafabadi, N. (2011). The impact of population on economic growth within the framework of the optimal growth model in Iran’s economy (1971-2007): An application of the genetic algorithm. Economic Research Journal, 46(94), 1-22. Becker, G. S. (1964). Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. University of Chicago Press.Edition: 1st. Pages: 1–268. DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226041223.001.0001. Blundell, R., Pistaferri, L., & Preston, I. (2008). Consumption Inequality and Partial Insurance. Journal of American Economic Review, 98(5), 1887–1921. Casado, J. M. (2011). “From Income to Consumption: Measuring Households’ Partial Insurance”. Empirical Economics, 40(2), 471-495. Dargahi, H., & Mohammadzadeh, M. (2019). Over-sensitivity of household consumption with emphasis on liquidity constraints in Iran. Journal of Economic Research, 21(4), 84-102. Dargahi, H., & Mohammadzadeh, M. (2024). Examining household consumption hypersensitivity with emphasis on liquidity constraints in Iran. Growth and Sustainable Development Research Journal, 19(3), 61-84. Datta, K., & Padmanabhan, S. (2011). Consumption smoothing and income shocks. Journal of Economic Perspectives. Di Giorgi, G & Gambeti, L. (2017). “Business Cycle Fluctuations and Distribution of Consumption”. Journal of Review of Economic Dynamics, 23, 19-41. Eichengreen, B. (2012). ECON 191, Fall 2012 Guidelines for Writing an Economics Research Paper. University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved from https://eml.berkeley.edu/~ webfac/ eichengreen/e191_fall12/ guidelin es_econ191_8-20-12.pdf Flavin, M. A. (1981). The adjustment of consumption to changing expectations about future income. Journal of Political Economy, 89(5): 974-1009. Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0691041860. Galí, J, López-Salido, J. David & Vallés, J. (2007). “Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption”. Journal of the European Economic Association, 5(1), 227-270. Galor, O., & Zeira, J. (1994). Income Distribution and Macroeconomics. Review of Economic Studies. 60(1), 35–52. DOI: 10.2307/2297811. Haironizam.W , A. Sanep , A.K. Radiah, S. (2010). “Pengaruh Faktor Keagamaan Terhadap Kualiti Hidup Individu: Kajian Kes Asnaf dan Miskin. Seminar Kebangsaan MACFEA ke-14, Hala tuju Penyelidikan Kepenggunaan, 13–14. Hellmanzik, C. (2024). Writing Guide for Academic Papers. Technical University of Dortmund. Retrieved from https://uri.wiwi.tu-dortmund.de/storages/uri-wiwi/r/Dokumente/writing_guide-URI.pdf. Huang, Y. L., Huang, C. H., & Kuan, C. M. (2008). “Reexamining the Permanent Income Hypothesis with Uncertainty in Permanent and Transitory Innovation States”. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(4), 1816-1836. Hollweg, C. H. (2014). “Essay on the Transmission of Economic Shocks (Doctoral)”.Https://Digital.Library.Adelaide.Edu.Au/Dspace/Bitstream/ 2440/85927/8/02whole.Pdf. Jalaei, S. A., Ghasemi, A., & Sattari, O. (2015). Simulation of the consumption function and prediction of Iran’s consumption up to 2025 using the genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm. Economic Research Quarterly (Growth and Sustainable Development), 15(2), 27-47. Karimi, M., & Barati, M. (2017). The role of savings and borrowing in consumption smoothing: Evidence from Iranian households. Journal of Economic Studies, 44(3), 456-472. Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Palgrave Macmillan.ISBN: 978-0230004764. Chapters: 8–10. Keshavarz Haddad, G. (2016). Microeconometrics and Policy Evaluation. Nashr-e Ney. Mohammadi, T., Salem, A. A., Mir Mohammad, A., & Tajrishi, M. (2017). Measuring the equivalence scale of rural households in Iran. Iranian Economic Research Journal, 22(72), 103-125. Molaei, M., & Adaei, A. (2018). Measuring the Consumption Smoothing of Iranian Households’ Food Consumption Against Temporary and Permanent Income Shocks. Journal of Economic Growth and Development Studies, 8(31), 93–106. Najarzadeh, R., Keikha, A., & Heydari, H. (2021). “Dynamics of consumption distribution and economic fluctuations”. EconChange Restruct 54, 847–876 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-020-09303-7 Nofaresti, M., & Madani Tonekaboni, S. S. (2006). The Effect of Changing Age Structure of Population on Private Sector Consumption Expenditures: A Cointegration Analysis. Peyke Noor - Humanities, *4*(2), 106-116. Pomona, C. (2023). The Young Economist's Short Guide to Writing Economic Research. Retrieved from https://www.pomona.edu/administration /cswim /student-resources/writing-humanities-and-social-sciences/young-economists-short-guide-writing-economic-research. Rankle, D. E. (1991). Liquidity constraints and the permanent-income hypothesis: Evidence from panel data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 27(1): 73-98. Shehu, A., & Sidique, S. F. (2015). “The Effect of Shocks on Household Consumption in Rural Nigeria”. The Journal of Developing Areas, 49(3), 353- 364. Rashid, A. (2021). Sustainable Consumption Patterns in Malaysian Households. Sustainability Journal, 13(4), 2105. Rahmeh, .I. Y., Ishak , A., Abd, H., & Syahida Z.A. (2010). “Analisis Status dan Penentu Daya Saing Pekerja dalam Sektor Pen- didikan di Malaysia”, Journal of Ekonomi Malaysia 44 83–91 Sirisankanun, P. (2015). Household consumption smoothing mechanisms. Journal of Economic Modelling, 48, 123-134. Tafazoli, F. (2006). History of Economic Thought: From Plato to the Contemporary Era (6th ed.). Nashr-e Ney. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2019). Sustainable Development Goals Report 2019 Zara Nezhad, M., & Mansouri, S. A. (2015). Estimation of the Ando-Modigliani Consumption Function Incorporating Various Types of Wealth in Iran, Quarterly Journal of Economic Research (Growth and Sustainable Development), Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 131-153. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 284 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 505 |
||