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The Impact of Consumption Stability on Income in Urban Households in Iran | ||
| Iranian Journal of Economic Studies | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 22 آبان 1404 | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2025.54586.2071 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Alireza Keikha* 1؛ Alireza Sargazi1؛ Elahe Ahani2 | ||
| 1Agricutural Economics, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Accounting, Bozorgmehr University of Gaenat, Gaen, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| In Iran, household consumption expenditure is a cornerstone of aggregate demand and a fundamental indicator of economic welfare. This study examines the extent of consumption instability among urban Iranian households and its bidirectional relationship with household income. Using nationally representative microdata from Iran’s 2024 Household Budget Survey and a combination of multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and quantile regression (QR) techniques, the analysis controls for key demographic and socioeconomic variables, including gender, experience, marital status, employment status, education level, and number of dependents. To measure consumption stability, a novel index is constructed based on the relative volatility of each household’s current expenditures, which are categorized into levels ranging from "very low" to "very high." The findings show that, of the 19,898 households in the sample, 19,611 (98%) are classified as "very low" and 286 (2%) as "low"; none are classified as "moderate" or higher. Quantile regression results indicate that the effect of consumption stability on household income is statistically significant and positive across the 0.25, 0.5, and 0.75 income quantiles (p < 0.05, and in some cases, p < 0.01). However, this effect is highly asymmetric; a one-unit increase in the consumption stability index results in income gains that are over 60% larger for high-income households (0.75 quantile) than for low-income households (0.25 quantile). This pattern reveals a self-reinforcing "welfare cycle" among affluent households coexisting with a "consumption instability trap" for low-income groups. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Sustainable Consumption Index؛ Multivariate Regression؛ Quantile Regression؛ Expenditure-Income | ||
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