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How do systematic factors affect the cyclical behavior of the stock market in the Iranian economy? | ||
| Iranian Journal of Economic Studies | ||
| دوره 13، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 26، اسفند 2024، صفحه 325-342 اصل مقاله (425.58 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2025.52741.2021 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Mostafa Abdollahzadeh؛ Ebrahim Hadian* | ||
| Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Certainly, the stock market in each country is known as a scale to measure that country’s economic situation. Therefore, identifying the factors affecting the creation of cyclical behaviors in this market can be useful for both policymakers and investors. The Main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of systematic variables on cyclical behaviors of Tehran stock market. Statistically, systematic variables affect the stock values of a large number of companies and the entire market consequently. In doing so, in the first stage, the ARDL model was applied to estimate the short and long run coefficients of systematic variables. The results showed that Liquidity volume has a positive and significant effect on the total stock market index without any lag in the short run. GDP has a negative effect on the total stock market index with a lag. This effect indicates that a large part of GDP is financed through the stock market. Also, the only systematic variable that has had a positive and significant effect on the stock market index in the long run is net capital stock. Subsequently, the Co-movement, variability and stability indices have been calculated by using the Markov switching approach with annual data of (1991-2023), the results showed that the demand for money at the level of (M2) was the main driver of Tehran stock market cycles with high stability which means how long the fluctuations tend to persist before reverting to the long-run trend. Under these circumstances, what the Central Bank decides about monetary variables based on the cyclical position of the Tehran Stock Exchange market value can affect the depth of the recession and the inflation rate. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| Tehran Stock Market؛ Co-movement Index؛ Variability Index؛ Stability Index | ||
| مراجع | ||
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