| تعداد نشریات | 24 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 859 |
| تعداد مقالات | 7,631 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 13,515,246 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 11,637,832 |
The effects of price explosion and compensatory policies on food security: The Case of chicken meat consumers in Iran | ||
| Iran Agricultural Research | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 42، شماره 2، بهمن 2023، صفحه 49-58 اصل مقاله (376.23 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/iar.2024.48881.1565 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Abbas Mirzaei* 1؛ Hassan Azarm2؛ Naser Valizadeh3؛ Seyed Mohammad Javad Sobhani4؛ Ali Ziaee5 | ||
| 1Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, I. R. Iran | ||
| 2Department of Agricultural Economics, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, I. R. Iran. | ||
| 3Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, I. R. Iran. | ||
| 4Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, I. R. Iran. | ||
| 5Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, I. R. Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Rising food prices have raised concerns about declining food security and increasing food poverty, thereby increasing the vulnerability of the poor to food insecurity. Chicken meat is highly consumed in Iran and plays a key role in the Iranian food basket. Therefore, the explosion in its price in 2020 has posed a threat to the country's food security. Iran's chicken industry is highly dependent on imported inputs, so any increase in exchange rates, global prices, and import restrictions will increase the final price of chicken. In this context, the current study examined the impact of the chicken price explosion and compensation strategies on the amount of calories consumed by consumers. For this purpose, a multi-market equilibrium simulation model was used. The chicken market is linked to the red meat market (beef and sheep). The results showed that an 84% increase in the price of chicken in 2020 would lead to a 41%, 6%, and 14% decrease in the consumption of chicken, beef, and sheep, respectively. In addition, an increase in the price of chicken meat led to a decrease in per capita calorie intake by around 27%. These results indicate that beef and sheep products are not considered viable alternatives to chicken in Iran. Comparing policies that increase nominal income with policies that increase products on the market, the results show that policies that increase products on the market through increased production or imports have more favorable effects on food security. The results also revealed that improving policies related to the import of products will lead to favorable effects on food security compared to nominal income enhancement policies. The results of this study provide policy and decision makers with appropriate adaptation strategies to deal with price shocks in the food sector of the countries. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Calorie intake؛ Iran؛ Multi-market equilibrium؛ Nominal income | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Ataei, K., & Mohammadi, H. (2018). Determining the demand elasticity of selection food product in Mazandaran province by using Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) case study: Hen, Aquatic and Beef Meat. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 10 (39), 173-186. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.20086407.1397.10.39.8.2.
Bakhshoodeh, M., & Fathi, F. (2009). Food security in light of improving per capita consumption of animal protein at the Forth developing plan. Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 31-43. (In Persian).
Balagtas, J., & Kim, S. (2007). Measuring the effects of generic dairy advertising in a multi-market equilibrium. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 89(4), 932-946. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01037.x.
Ben Abdallah, M., Fekete-Farkas, M., & Lakner, Z. (2021). Exploring the link between food security and food price dynamics: A bibliometric analysis. Agriculture, 11(3), 263. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11030263.
Chavas, J. P. (2017). On food security and the economic valuation of food. Food Policy, 69, 58-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.03.008.
Chilosi, D., & Federico, G. (2021). The effects of market integration during the first globalization: A multi-market approach. European Review of Economic History, 25(1), 20-58. https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/heaa009.
Croppenstedt, A., Bellú, L.G., Bresciani, F., & DiGiuseppe, S. (2007). Agricultural policy effect analysis with Multi-Market models: A primer. ESA Working Paper No. 07-26, June 2007. FAO, Rome.
Czyżewski, A., & Grzelak, A. (2018). Application of the input-output model for structural analysis on the example of the agricultural sector in Poland. Management, 22(2), 285-298. https://doi.org/10.2478/manment-2018-0037.
Daghir, N., Diab-El-Harake, M., & Kharroubi, S. (2021). Poultry production and its effects on food security in the Middle Eastern and North African region. Journal of Applied Poultry Research, 30(1), 100-110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japr.2020.10.009.
Deng, X., Gibson, J., & Wang, P. (2017). Quantitative measurements of the interaction between net primary productivity and livestock production in Qinghai Province based on data fusion technique. Journal of Clean Production, 142: 758-766. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.05.057.
FAO. (2013). OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 2010–2019, 6th ed. OECD publishing. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2010-2019.
FAO. (2020). FAOSTAT. Retrieved from: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data.
FAO. (2021). World food situation. Retrieved from: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/.
Fathi, F., & Bakhshoodeh, M. (2021). Economic and environmental strategies against targeting energy subsidy in Iranian meat market: A game theory approach. Energy Policy, 150, 112153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112153.
Fathi, F., & Bakhshoodeh, M. (2016). Changes in food security due to the policy of eliminating energy subsidies in the Iranian meat market. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(1), 1-9. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22067/jead2.v30i1.42324.
Ghazali, S., & Bakhshoodeh, M. (2014). Assessing the effects of dried fruit price surging on nutritional welfare of consumers in Iran. Agricultural Economics, 8(3), 65-81. https://www.iranianjae.ir/article_10455.html?lang=en.
Gómez-Luciano, C.A., Vriesekoop, F., & Urbano, B. (2019). Towards food security of alternative dietary proteins: A comparison between Spain and the Dominican Republic. Amfiteatru Economic, 21(51), 393-407. https://doi.org/10.24818/EA/2019/51/393.
Haggblade, S., Me-Nsope, N. M., & Staatz, J. M. (2017). Food security implications of staple food substitution in Sahelian West Africa. Food Policy, 71, 27-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.06.003.
Harris, J., Chisanga, B., Drimie, S., & Kennedy, G. (2019). Nutrition transition in Zambia: Changing food supply, food prices, and household consumption, diet and nutrition outcomes. Food Security, 11(2), 371-387. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-019-00903-4.
Helseth, A., Haugen, M., Jaehnert, S., Mo, B., Farahmand, H., & Naversen, C. (2018). Multi-market price forecasting in hydro-thermal power systems, presented at 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) (pp. 1-5), Poland, Lodz city, IEEE Xplore website.
Hernandez, M. A., Ibarra, R., & Trupkin, D. R. (2014). How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 41, 301–325.
https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbt020.
Hill, R. V., & Porter, C. (2017). Vulnerability to drought and food price shocks: Evidence from Ethiopia. World Development, 96, 65-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.02.025.
Iran’s Ministry of Agriculture. (2019). Deputy Minister of livestock production of the ministry of Jihad Agriculture. (Unpublished).
Iran’s Ministry of Agriculture. (2020). Annual statistics. Retrieved from https://www.maj.ir/english.
Kuttappan, V. A., Owens, C. M., Coon, C., Hargis, B. M., & Vazquez-Anon, M. (2017). Incidence of broiler breast myopathies at 2 different ages and its effect on selected raw meat quality parameters. Poultry Science, 96(8), 3005-3009. https://doi.org/10.3382/ps/pex072.
Lee, Y. (2021). Multi-Market economic analysis of food policy and agricultural technology. (Doctoral dissertation, The University of Nebraska-Lincoln).
Lundberg, M., & Rich, K. (2002). Multimarket models and policy analysis: An application to Madagascar, development economics research group/poverty reduction group, Environment and infrastructure team, Mimeo. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
Minot, N. (2009). Using GAMS for agricultural policy analysis. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Retrieved from: https://agris.fao.org/search/en/providers/122566/records/6473920068b4c299a3f9f143.
Nasr Ahmed, Y., Delin, H., Belford, C., Shaker, V., & Abdelrahaman, N. A. M. (2021). An estimate of the potential economic effects of climate change on Egypt’s agriculture: A multi-market model approach. Climate and Development, 13(3), 228-241.https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.175415.
OECD. (2018). Indicators and statistics. Retrieved from: https://data.oecd.org/.
Pishbahar, E., Pakrooh, P., & Ghahremanzadeh, M. (2019). Effects of oil prices and exchange rates on imported inputs’ prices for the livestock and poultry industry in Iran. In sustainable agriculture and agribusiness in Iran. (pp. 163-182). Springer, Singapore.
Rad, A. K., Shamshiri, R. R., Azarm, H., Balasundram, S. K., & Sultan, M. (2021). Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security and agriculture in Iran: A survey. Sustainability, 13(18), 10103. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810103.
Sheriff, M. A., Lakoh, K. A., Conteh, B. K., & Nkunzimana, T. (2020). Market and welfare effects of food security policies on smallholder rice farmers and consumers in Sierra Leone. Journal of Agricultural Science, 12(6), 76-89.
https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v12n6p76.
Statistical Center of Iran. (2020a). Time series data. Deputy for strategic planning and supervision. Retrieved from: https://www.amar.org.ir/.
Statistical Center of Iran (2020b). Consumer price index. Accessed date: 9 November 2020. Retrieved from: https://www.amar.org.ir/news/ID/13201
Van Campenhout, B., Pauw, K., & Minot, N. (2018). The effect of food price shocks in Uganda: First-order effects versus general-equilibrium consequences. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 45 (5), 783-807.
https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jby013.
Wossen, T., Berger, T., Haile, M. G., & Troost, Ch. (2018). Effects of climate variability and food price volatility on household income and food security of farm households in East and West Africa. Agricultural Systems, 163, 7-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.02.006.
Yu, K., & Kim, K. (2020). Estimating the effects of HMR consumption increase on food industry in Korea: A stochastic multi-sector and multi-market equilibrium displacement modelling approach, Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. Kansas City, Missouri, 304488 | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 341 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 371 |
||