| تعداد نشریات | 24 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 886 |
| تعداد مقالات | 7,900 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 14,905,363 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 12,668,134 |
Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies for a Non-Inflationary Exit from Stagnation in Iran: A DSGE Approach | ||
| Iranian Journal of Economic Studies | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 8، شماره 2، اسفند 2019، صفحه 283-314 اصل مقاله (1.15 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2020.35291.1620 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Iman Rousta* ؛ Ebrahim Hadian؛ Ali Hussein Samadi؛ Parviz Rostamzadeh | ||
| Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal monetary and fiscal policies with emphasis on a non-inflationary exit from economic stagnation in Iran. In the first stage, Iran’s economy has been modeled in the form of a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (NK-DSGE). After modeling and extracting the system of equations, the structural parameters of the model have been estimated by using seasonal data from 1989 to 2016 and also the Bayesian approach. The results show that monetary and fiscal expansionary policies increase production though they are associated with inflation. In the second stage, the optimal monetary and fiscal rules have been extracted from a social loss function, and accordingly the conditions of a non-inflationary exit from stagnation have been investigated. The results of the simulation show that the optimal monetary policy cannot by itself lead to the exit of the economy from stagnation without inflation. However, if this policy is applied along with an optimal fiscal policy, a non-inflationary exit from economic stagnation can be achieved. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Optimal monetary and fiscal policy؛ DSGE model؛ Iran’s economy | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
1- Adam, K (2011). Government debt and optimal monetary and fiscal policy, European Economic Review, 55(1), 57 – 74. DOI: 10.3386/w17319
2- Al-shawarby, S., & El Mossallamy, M. (2019). Monetary-fiscal policies interactions and optimal rules in Egypt. Review of Economics and Political Science, 4(2), 138-157.
3- Barsky, R., B., and Kilian, l. (2001). Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 16, 137-198. DOI: 10.1086/654439
4- Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M. and Gilchrist, S. (1999). The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework. Handbook of macroeconomics, 1343-1391. DOI: 10.3386/w6455
5- Blanchard, O, and Fischer, S (1989). “Lectures on Macroeconomics”, Boston, MIT Press.
6- Blanchard, Olivier and Kahn, Charles M (1980). The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations. The Journal of Econometrica, 48(5), 1305-1311. DOI: 10.2307/1912186
7- Branson, W. H. (1989). Macroeconomic Theory and Policy. New York: Harper and Row.
8- Del Negro, M. and Schorfheide, F. (2008). Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities). Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, 55(7), 1191-1208. DOI: 10.3386/w13741
9- Dixit, A. K., and J. E. Stiglitz (1977). Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity. The American Economic Review, 67, 297-308. DOI: 10.7916/D8S75S91
10- Dixit, A., and Lambertini, L. (2003). Symbiosis of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Monetary Union. The Journal of International Economics, 60, 235-247. DOI: 10.1016/s0022-1996(02)00048-x
11- Farazmand, H., Ghorbannejad, M., and PourJavan, A. (2013). Determine the optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules in economy of Iran. The Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 21(67), 69-88.
12- Friedman, M. (1969). The Optimum Quantity of Money, and Other Essays. Chicago: Aldine Pub. Co.
13- Gali, J (2007). Monetary policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to New Keynesian Economics, New Jersy, Princeton University Press.
14- Gali, J. and Monacelli, T. (2008). Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union. Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, 76(1), 116-132. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.02.007
15- Glain, P. (2007). The Optimal Monetary Policy Rule for the European Central Bank. Department of Economics, University of Pisa.
16- Ireland, P. (2004). A Method for Taking Models to the Data. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, 28(6), 1205-1226. DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2007-4
17- Jafari Samimi, A., and Tehran chian, A. M., (2004). The effect of optimal monetary and fiscal policies on major macroeconomic indicators in Iran: An application of optimal control theory. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 65, 213-242.
18- khani gharieh gapi, N., sahabi, B., azizi, F., and sabagh kermani, M. (2014). Identification of Stagflation Causes in Iran: A Threshold Error Correction Method. The Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling, 7(24), 19-35.
19- Kydland, F., E., and Prescott C., E. (1977). Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 473-492. DOI: 10.1086/260580
20- Mankiw, G. N. (1985). Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(2), 529-537. DOI: 10.2307/1885395
21- McCallum, B (1989). Targets, Indicators, and Instruments of Monetary Policy. NBER Working Papers 3047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
22- Motavaseli M., Ebrahimi I., Shahmoradi A., and Komijani A. (2011). A New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model for an Oil Exporting Country. QJER, 10 (4), 87-116.
23- Nitzan, J. (1998). Differential accumulation: Towards a new political economy of capital. Review of International Political Economy, 5, 169–216. DOI: 10.1080/096922998347543
24- Pajouyan, J. (2016). Public Sector Economic (Taxes). Tehran: publisher of Jungle.
25- Roger, B. (1981). The proper medicine for stagflation. Technology in Society, l3, 45-62. DOI: 10.1016/0160-791X(81)90012-9
26- Rotemberg, J., J. (1982). Sticky Prices in the United States. Journal of Political Economy, 90(6), 1187-1211. DOI: 10.1086/261117
27- Schmitt, G., S., and Uribe, M. (2004). Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices. Journal of Economic Theory, 114, 198-230. DOI: 10.1007/s40797-016-0038-7
28- Schorfheide, F. (2000). Loss function-based evaluation OF DSGE models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15, 645-670. DOI: 10.1002/jae.582
29- Snowdon, B., Vane, H. R., and Wynarczyk, P. (1994). A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics: An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought. Aldershot, Hants, England: E. Elgar Pub.
30- Tavakolian, H. (2012). A New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a DSGE Model for Iran. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 47(3), 1-22.
31- Tavakolian, H., and Sarem, M. (2016). DSGE models in DYNARE (modeling, Solution and Estimation for Iran). Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran,Monetary and Banking Research Institute press.
32- Tayebi, S. K., Zamani, Z., and Malek Hosseini, S.H. (2015). The reaction of production and foreign trade to exchange policy for exit of economy from stagnation without inflation. The Journal of Financial Economy, 10(34), 1-32.
33- Taylor, J (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie – Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195 – 214.
34- Uhlig, H. (1999). A Toolkit for Analyzing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Models Easily. Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research - Discussion Paper 95-97.
35- Walsh, C. E. (2010). Monetary Theory and Policy. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, third edition, London. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 776 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 844 |
||