| تعداد نشریات | 24 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 924 |
| تعداد مقالات | 8,295 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 16,556,284 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 13,966,764 |
Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regime and Policy Evaluation for Iran | ||
| Iranian Journal of Economic Studies | ||
| مقاله 12، دوره 8، شماره 2، اسفند 2019، صفحه 441-462 اصل مقاله (884.12 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2020.33990.1583 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Kiomars Sohaili* 1؛ Alireza Erfani2؛ Yousef Hayati2 | ||
| 1Department of Economics, , Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Economics, ,Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Exchange rate fluctuations have a major role on business cycles. Due to this degree of importance, this paper analyzed the effects of managed floating exchange rate regime on dynamics of some macroeconomics variables of Iran. To do this, we design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Iran and then using quarterly data over 1989-2016 and Bayesian method, the structural parameters of the model have been estimated. By employing conditional forecasting, our results show that managed floating exchange rate regime, compared with fixed regime, brings more economic growth and at the same time, less speculative activities in money and exchange markets. Moreover, the results from variance decomposition reveal that exchange rate shocks are the most important shock in deriving business cycles and fluctuations of other variables. Based on these finding, we propose policymaker to choose managed floating exchange rate regime as its policy rule. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Exchange rate regimes؛ DSGE models؛ Policy evaluation؛ Conditional forecasting | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Adolfson, M., & Laseen, S., & Linde, J., & Svensson, L. (2014), Monetary Policy Trade- offs in an Estimated Open Economy DSGE Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 42, 33- 49.
Agenor, R., & Prasad, E., and McDermott, C. (1999), Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts, IMF Working Papers 99/35.
Batini, N, and Gabriel, V, and Levine, P, and Pearlman, J. (2010). “A Floating versus managed exchange rate regime in a DSGE model of India,NIPE Working Papers, 31/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
Canzoneri, M., & Cumby, R., & Diba, B. (2001), Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?, American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 5, 1221 – 1238.
Curdia, V., & Woodford, M. (2008), Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy, NBER Working Paper, 15289.
Dilmaghani, A., and Tehranchian, A. (2015), The Impact of Monetary Policies on the Exchange Rate: A GMM Approach, Iranian Economic Review (IER), vol. 19(2), 177-191.
Dueker, M., and Fischer, A. (1996), Inflation Targeting in a Small Open Economy: Empirical Results for Switzerland, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 89 – 103.
Fuhrer, Jeffery. (2000), Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary Policy Models, American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 3, 367 – 390.
Galí, Jordi., & Tommaso, Monacelli. (2005), Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 72(3), 707-734.
Gali, Jordi., & Gertler, Mark. (1999), Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 44, Issue 2, 195 – 222.
Kydland, Finn., & Prescott, Edward. (1977), Rules rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, Issue 3, 473 – 91.
Lawrence, C., & Martin, E., & Evans, C. (2005), Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 113(1), 1-45.
Miah, J. (2010), Conditional Forecasts in DSGE Models, Norges Bank Working Paper, 2010/07.
Neumeyer, P., & Perri, F. (2005), Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates, NBER Working paper,10387.
Salavitabar, S., & Jalali-Naeini, A. (2014), Analyzing Exchange Rates Regimes in an Open Small Economy, Budget and Planning Journal, No. 125.
Tavakolian, H., & Sarem, M. (2017), DSGE Model in Dynare Software, Tehran, MBRI Publication.
Taylor, John. (1993), Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice, Carnegie – Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol 39, 195-214.
Uhlig, H. (1999), A Toolkit for Analyzing Non-linear Difference Equations, Memo, Tilberg University.
Walsh, Carl. (2010), Monetary Theory and Policy. Massachusetts, MIT Press, Third Edition.
Yazdani, M., & Gheshlaghi, S. (2016), Analyzing the Effects of Exchange Rates Shocks on the Inflation in Iran Economy, Iran Applied Economic Studies Journal, No. 5, 171-197. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,237 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 764 |
||