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Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regime and Policy Evaluation for Iran | ||
| Iranian Journal of Economic Studies | ||
| مقاله 12، دوره 8، شماره 2، اسفند 2019، صفحه 441-462 اصل مقاله (884.12 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2020.33990.1583 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Kiomars Sohaili* 1؛ Alireza Erfani2؛ Yousef Hayati2 | ||
| 1Department of Economics, , Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Economics, ,Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Exchange rate fluctuations have a major role on business cycles. Due to this degree of importance, this paper analyzed the effects of managed floating exchange rate regime on dynamics of some macroeconomics variables of Iran. To do this, we design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Iran and then using quarterly data over 1989-2016 and Bayesian method, the structural parameters of the model have been estimated. By employing conditional forecasting, our results show that managed floating exchange rate regime, compared with fixed regime, brings more economic growth and at the same time, less speculative activities in money and exchange markets. Moreover, the results from variance decomposition reveal that exchange rate shocks are the most important shock in deriving business cycles and fluctuations of other variables. Based on these finding, we propose policymaker to choose managed floating exchange rate regime as its policy rule. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Exchange rate regimes؛ DSGE models؛ Policy evaluation؛ Conditional forecasting | ||
| مراجع | ||
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