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The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Discretionary Fiscal Policy in Selected OPEC Countries: Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive | ||
| Iranian Journal of Economic Studies | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 8، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 15، خرداد 2019، صفحه 7-25 اصل مقاله (545.03 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2018.30257.1470 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Marzieh Dindar Rostami* 1؛ Shamsollah Shirinbakhsh2؛ Zahra Afshari3 | ||
| 1statistical center of Iran,Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2Faculty of Social and Economic, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 3Faculty of social and Economic, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| The present study was aimed to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policies in selected OPEC countries during 1980-2015. In this regard, the heterogeneous dynamic reaction to structural shock was examined using Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) technique. Based on the findings, the effect of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policy was positive in short-run but ineffective in long-run. In addition, the oil price shocks caused an increase in inflation and government expenditure and a decrease in the economic growth in selected OPEC countries according to the Resource Curse phenomenon. Moreover, as variance decomposition showed, the government expenditure and economic growth have the most effect on discretionary policy changes. The effect of discretionary fiscal policy on economic growth in selected OPEC countries was negative, contrary to the Keynesian theory and the results of some other studies. Because discretionary fiscal policies play a major role in decisions of the countries mentioned above, the results also showed that a limitation in the government authority in OPEC countries would come into conflict with the decrease in economic growth and production fluctuation. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Panel SVAR؛ OPEC countries؛ Discretionary fiscal policy؛ Oil Price Shocks | ||
| مراجع | ||
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References
Attinasi, M., & Klem, M. A. (2016). The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures. Journal of Macroeconomics, 49, 265–279. Bank, A. (2011). Effects of discretionary fiscal policy: New empirical evidence for Germany. Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-470, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissens chaftliche nakultät. Beetsma. R., Giuliodori, M., & Klaassen, F. (2010). The effects of public spending shocks on trade balances and budget deficits in the European Union. Journal of the European Economic Association,6(2-3),414-423. Beetsma, R. (2008). A survey of the effects of discretionary fiscal policy. Studier I Finans Politik, 2, 1-37. Boiciuc, I. (2015). The cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in Romania. Procedia Economics and Finance, 32, 286 – 291. Chalk, N. (2002). Structural balances and all that which indicators to use in assessing fiscal policy. IMF Working Paper, No. 02/101, 1-31, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=879668 El-Anshasy, A., Bradley, A., & Michael, D. (2011). Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 605-620. Eltejai, E., & ArbabAfzali, M. (2012). Asymmetric effect of oil revenues on macroeconomic variables in Iran: Application of GARCH and SVAR models. Journal of Economic Development Research, 2(7), 89-110. Fallahi, F., Asgharpour, H., Motefakerazad, M. A., & Montazeri Shurokhhalali, J. (2012). Influence of inflation on economic growth in Iran: Using slow transmission regression model (STR). Economic Studies and Policies, 8 (18), 47 - 64. Fatas, A., & Miho, I. (2003). The case for restricting discretionary fiscal rules in the US states. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 90,101-117. Gali, J., & Perotti, R. (2003). Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe. NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Goes, C. (2016). Testing Piketty's hypothesis on the drivers of income inequality: Evidence from Panel VARs with heterogeneous dynamics. IMF Working Paper 16/160. Hoghaberkiani, K., & Moradi, A. (2012). Estimation of potential production and production gap with emphasis on Hodrick-Prescott filter approach for Iran's economy (1367:1 1368:4). Journal of Economic Research, 7, 13, 143 - 168(In Persian). Komijani, A., & Alavi, M. (1999). The effectiveness of monetary policies on inflation and economic growth in Iran. Journal of Management Studies, 11(4), 17-41. Larch, M., & Salto, M. (2005). Fiscal rules, inertia, and discretionary fiscal policy, Applied Economics, 37(10), 1135-1146. Marrewijk, c. v., & Verbeek, j. (1991). Growth, budget deficits, fiscal policies in an overlapping generation's model. Journal of Economics, 53(2), 185-203. Mohammadi, H., & Baratzadeh, A. (2013). Impact of shocks caused by oil revenues on government expenditures and liquidity in Iran. Iranian Journal of Energy Economics, 2(7), 129-145. Motevasseli, M., Ebrahimi, I., Shahmoradi, A., & Kajjani, A. (2010). Designing a new generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy as oil exporting country. Economic Research, 10(4), 9-15. Nilly, M., & Amid, E. (1999). The effect of government fiscal policy on economic growth, proceedings of the 9th conference on monetary and foreign exchange policies. Monetary and Bank Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Pedroni, P. (2013). Structural panel VARs. Econometrics, 2, 180-206. Rajaee, A. H., & Jalayi, A. (2017). The study of output gap in the Iranian economy using Hodrick-Prescott and Band-Post filtering. Journal of Economics, 3/4, 135-150. Reis, L. d., Manasse, P., & Panizza, U. (2007). Targeting the structural balance. Research Department Publications 4507, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. Samadi, S., YahyaAbadi, A., & Moallemi, N. (2009). Analysis of the impact of oil prices shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran. Journal of Research and Economic Policy, 17(52), 26-5. Samimi, A. (1997). Impact of government deficit on the growth of money and inflation in the Iranian economy (1981:1-1995:4). Master's thesis, Shiraz University. Seyyedi, M., DaneshJafari, D., Bahrami, J., & Rafei, M. (2015). Providing a framework for optimum use of oil revenues in Iran: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Planning, and Budget, 20(2), 21-58.
References
Attinasi, M., & Klem, M. A. (2016). The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures. Journal of Macroeconomics, 49, 265–279. Bank, A. (2011). Effects of discretionary fiscal policy: New empirical evidence for Germany. Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-470, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissens chaftliche nakultät. Beetsma. R., Giuliodori, M., & Klaassen, F. (2010). The effects of public spending shocks on trade balances and budget deficits in the European Union. Journal of the European Economic Association,6(2-3),414-423. Beetsma, R. (2008). A survey of the effects of discretionary fiscal policy. Studier I Finans Politik, 2, 1-37. Boiciuc, I. (2015). The cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in Romania. Procedia Economics and Finance, 32, 286 – 291. Chalk, N. (2002). Structural balances and all that which indicators to use in assessing fiscal policy. IMF Working Paper, No. 02/101, 1-31, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=879668 El-Anshasy, A., Bradley, A., & Michael, D. (2011). Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 605-620. Eltejai, E., & ArbabAfzali, M. (2012). Asymmetric effect of oil revenues on macroeconomic variables in Iran: Application of GARCH and SVAR models. Journal of Economic Development Research, 2(7), 89-110. Fallahi, F., Asgharpour, H., Motefakerazad, M. A., & Montazeri Shurokhhalali, J. (2012). Influence of inflation on economic growth in Iran: Using slow transmission regression model (STR). Economic Studies and Policies, 8 (18), 47 - 64. Fatas, A., & Miho, I. (2003). The case for restricting discretionary fiscal rules in the US states. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 90,101-117. Gali, J., & Perotti, R. (2003). Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe. NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Goes, C. (2016). Testing Piketty's hypothesis on the drivers of income inequality: Evidence from Panel VARs with heterogeneous dynamics. IMF Working Paper 16/160. Hoghaberkiani, K., & Moradi, A. (2012). Estimation of potential production and production gap with emphasis on Hodrick-Prescott filter approach for Iran's economy (1367:1 1368:4). Journal of Economic Research, 7, 13, 143 - 168(In Persian). Komijani, A., & Alavi, M. (1999). The effectiveness of monetary policies on inflation and economic growth in Iran. Journal of Management Studies, 11(4), 17-41. Larch, M., & Salto, M. (2005). Fiscal rules, inertia, and discretionary fiscal policy, Applied Economics, 37(10), 1135-1146. Marrewijk, c. v., & Verbeek, j. (1991). Growth, budget deficits, fiscal policies in an overlapping generation's model. Journal of Economics, 53(2), 185-203. Mohammadi, H., & Baratzadeh, A. (2013). Impact of shocks caused by oil revenues on government expenditures and liquidity in Iran. Iranian Journal of Energy Economics, 2(7), 129-145. Motevasseli, M., Ebrahimi, I., Shahmoradi, A., & Kajjani, A. (2010). Designing a new generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy as oil exporting country. Economic Research, 10(4), 9-15. Nilly, M., & Amid, E. (1999). The effect of government fiscal policy on economic growth, proceedings of the 9th conference on monetary and foreign exchange policies. Monetary and Bank Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Pedroni, P. (2013). Structural panel VARs. Econometrics, 2, 180-206. Rajaee, A. H., & Jalayi, A. (2017). The study of output gap in the Iranian economy using Hodrick-Prescott and Band-Post filtering. Journal of Economics, 3/4, 135-150. Reis, L. d., Manasse, P., & Panizza, U. (2007). Targeting the structural balance. Research Department Publications 4507, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. Samadi, S., YahyaAbadi, A., & Moallemi, N. (2009). Analysis of the impact of oil prices shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran. Journal of Research and Economic Policy, 17(52), 26-5. Samimi, A. (1997). Impact of government deficit on the growth of money and inflation in the Iranian economy (1981:1-1995:4). Master's thesis, Shiraz University. Seyyedi, M., DaneshJafari, D., Bahrami, J., & Rafei, M. (2015). Providing a framework for optimum use of oil revenues in Iran: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Planning, and Budget, 20(2), 21-58.
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