| تعداد نشریات | 24 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 852 |
| تعداد مقالات | 7,575 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 13,420,786 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 11,583,422 |
The Impact of Fuel Subsidy Targeting in Iran Using a CGE Model | ||
| Iranian Journal of Economic Studies | ||
| مقاله 3، دوره 4، شماره 1، تیر 2015، صفحه 53-79 اصل مقاله (194.4 K) | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22099/ijes.2015.3775 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Hiva Rahiminia* 1؛ Beitollah Akbari Moghada2؛ Mohammad Reza Monjazeb3 | ||
| 1Department of Economics, Payame Noor University of Marivan | ||
| 2Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University of Qazvin | ||
| 3Department of Economics, Kharazmi University,Tehran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Despite the implementation of the first phase of fuel subsidy targeting in December 2010, there are still debates over the economic impact of this project in Iran. A CGE model is used to analyze the impact of fuel subsidy targeting in Iran in four different scenarios. The data are used in the framework of SAM for the year 2001. In all scenarios, indirect subsidies are removed completely and replared with direct subsidies to households, manufacturing and service sectors and government institutions. The findings of this paper show that the effect of fuel subsidy targeting on economic variables depends on the way this policy is implemented. We find that an increase in the income of low-income household results in an increase in the production level of basic goods. Moreover, the result shows that the mining industry, glass and other non-metallic minerals and other service sectors have comparative advantages. In all senatrios, the elimination of in direct subsidies results in stagflation. The inflation rate resulted from this policy is predicted to be between 16.1 to 21.1 percent. Furthermore, in all senariors, higher direct payments of subsidies to households are associated with higher growth and inflation rates and lower balance of payments. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Fuel Subsidy؛ Subsidy Targeting؛ CGE Model؛ Iran | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Akbari Moghadam, B. (2012).The impact of subsidy targeting on rural and urban welfare in Qazvin province in Iran. Administration of economic affairs and finance of Qazvin Province, Iran.
Ariabod, A., Karbasi, A., Shahnooshi, N., & Mehregan, N. (2013). Studying the effect of targeting subsidies of energy carriers on agricultural products by using CGE model. Journal of Agricultural Science, 3(9), 374-378.
Banoee, A., (2012). Report of Parliament Research Center, Economical Studies Office. Retrieved from http://rc.majlis.ir/fa/report.
Bohringer, C., Rutherford, T. F., & Wiegard, W. (2004). Computable general equilibrium analysis: Opening a black box. Discussion paper, No: 03-56. Center for European Economic Research.
Breisinger, C., Engelke, W., & Ecker, O. (2012). Leveraging fuel subsidy reform for transition in Yemen. Sustainability, 4(11), 2862-2887.
Can, W. (2011). Scheme of constructing CGE Model of China's direct grain subsidy policy. Asian Agricultural Research Journal, 3(7), 47-53.
Central Bank of Iran. (2010). The overall index of prices of consumer goods and services in urban areas. Tehran, Iran. Retrieved from http://cbi.ir/page/10567.aspx
Central Bank of Iran. (2013, 2014). Time series. Tehran, Iran. Retrieved from http://cbi.ir/page/
Central Bank Policy of Iran. (2010). Productivity and intensity energy. Tehran, Iran. Retrieved from http://centralbanking.com/tag/central-bank-of-Iran
Emami Meibodi, A., Heidarpour, A., & Khoskalam Khosroshahi, M. (2011). An estimation of the inflationary impacts of adjusting prices of energy sources in Iran, under assumptions of gradual and abrupt changes. Quarterly Energy Economics Review, 7(27), 69-74.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2007). World energy outlook 2006. Paris, France. Retrieved from http://iea.org/report
Khiabani, N. (2008). A computable general equilibrium model to appraise the increasing of energy prices in economy of Iran. Quarterly Energy Economics Review, 16, 1-34.
Lin, B. & Jiang, Z. (2011). Estimates of energy subsidies in China and impact of energy subsidy Reform. China Center for Energy Economics Research.
Lofgren, H., Lee Harris, R., & Robinson, SH. (2002). A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRT), Washington, USA. Retrieved from: http://www.ifpri.org/ pubs/ microcom/ micro5. Htm.
Lofgren, H., & Robinson, S. (1999). Spatial networks in multi-region computable general equilibrium models. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. TMD Discussion Paper, No. 35.
Ministry of Energy (MOE). (2008). Energy balance of Iran 2007-2008.Division of Electricity and Energy. Tehran. Retrieved from http://news.moe.gov.ir/home?lang=en-US
Mirshojaeian Hosseini, H., & Kaneko, S. (2012). A general equilibrium analysis of the inflationary impact of energy subsidies reform in Iran. Development Discussion Policy Paper of Hiroshima University, 2 (8), 2-34.
Müller, M. & Ferrari, E. (2011). Deriving CGE baselines from macro-economic projections. Paper prepared to presentation at the EAAE 2011 congress change and uncertainty. Challenges for Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources. ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. Rahiminia, H., Akbari Moghadam, B., and Monjazeb, M. R. (2015). The impact of change in Iran subsidies system on the quantitative and price variable of domestic production and employment (by using CGE model). Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 19, 73-112.
Robinson, S., Yunez-Nade, A., Hinojosa-Ojeda, R. D., Lewis, J., & Devaraja, S. (1999). Stylized to applied models: Building multisector CGE models for policy analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 10, 5-38.
Rutherford, T. F. (1995). Extensions of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economics. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 19, 1299-1323.
Rutherford, T. F. (1999). Applied general equilibrium modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS subsystem: An overview of the modeling framework and syntax. Computational economics, 14, 1-46.
Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). (2005). Iran’s national input-output table 2001. Tehran, Iran. Retrieved from http://amar.org.ir /nationalaccount/defult-486.aspx .
Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). (2014). National accounts. Tehran, Iran. Retrieved from http://amar.org.ir/nationalaccount/defult-486.aspx.
Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). (2007). Iran statistical Yearbook 2006- 2007. Tehran, Iran. Retrieved from http://amar.sci.org.ir/EplanList.aspx.
Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). (2005). Iran’s national accounts 2001. Tehran, Iran. Retrieved from http://amar.org.ir/. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 2,819 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 2,255 |
||